Osters IF 1-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osters IF and Djurgardens IF meet at Visma Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osters IF have posted 2W 3D 5L at Visma Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Osters IF 0W, Djurgardens IF 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 51% versus Djurgardens IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 42% | Djurgardens IF 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.13 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.865 / defence 1.162 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.073 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.408. Data: 29 Osters IF games / 59 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 23% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 50%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Djurgardens IF 2.00. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 60% | Djurgardens IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 23% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Osters IF 1.13 / Djurgardens IF 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.865 / def 1.162 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.073 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Djurgardens IF xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Osters IF 1 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 23% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osters IF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Djurgardens IF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.86) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.07x) against Osters IF's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
23%
4.44
27%
3.66
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.88
1.76
Djurgardens IF xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
4%
25.71
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.76 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osters IF come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 17D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.68 PPG from 59 outings (28W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Osters IF against 1.68 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Osters IF's home form reads 12W 7D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.59 points per game from 29 outings (14W 4D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.59 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 21W 17D 21L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.48 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Osters IF
0
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Djurgardens IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 0, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Osters IF 1-3 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 48%, Djurgardens IF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Osters IF) and 48% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Osters IF have failed to score in 28% of games; Djurgardens IF in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Osters IF's recent matches and 41% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Osters IF's recent games and 48% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Osters IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Osters IF 1-3 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.13 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.76 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 23% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 50%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 42%, Djurgardens IF 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.36 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.