Kalmar FF 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kalmar FF face Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 7 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfågeln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Kalmar FF 3W, Djurgardens IF 5W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 45% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 47% | Djurgardens IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 0.89 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.897 / defence 1.227 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.165 / defence 0.636. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.271. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.636 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 19 Kalmar FF games / 49 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 17% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 58%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Djurgardens IF 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 60% | Djurgardens IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Monday 7 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 17% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Kalmar FF 0.89 / Djurgardens IF 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.897 / def 1.227 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.165 / def 0.636 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Djurgardens IF xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 7 September 2026 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 17% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (9 meetings): Kalmar FF 3W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 5W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.90x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.17x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
17%
5.91
25%
4.01
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.71
1.82
Djurgardens IF xG
5.91
17%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.16
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
3%
36.38
24%
4.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.82 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 23W 14D 12L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 24W 12D 13L from 49 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.71 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 2.25 PPG from 24 outings (17W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 4D 7L from 24 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.94 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 24W 12D 13L in their last 49 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.25 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Djurgardens IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Kalmar FF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 50%, Djurgardens IF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kalmar FF) and 42% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 42%; Djurgardens IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 38% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 42% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Kalmar FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Kalmar FF 0-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 0.89 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.82 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.90 / defence 1.23 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.17 / defence 0.64, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 17% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 58%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 47%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.69 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.