IFK Varnamo 3-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Varnamo face IFK Goteborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo host IFK Goteborg at Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 27). Kick-off is Monday 23 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IFK Varnamo have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
IFK Goteborg — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IFK Goteborg away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Varnamo at 1.90 PPG versus IFK Goteborg's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, IFK Varnamo have won 1, IFK Goteborg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended IFK Varnamo 1–0 IFK Goteborg — a IFK Varnamo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 50% versus IFK Goteborg 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 48% | IFK Goteborg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.94 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.708 / defence 0.833 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.876 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.208. IFK Varnamo's attack rating of 0.708 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 56 games and IFK Goteborg's last 56.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 32%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.84 | Draw 3.06 | IFK Goteborg 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 home games) | IFK Goteborg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 27 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 23 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG IFK Varnamo 0.94 / IFK Goteborg 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.708 / def 0.833 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.876 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.88
IFK Goteborg xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 23 October 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
IFK Varnamo 3 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 27) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 35% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.71x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 56 games and IFK Goteborg's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.06
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.82
0.88
IFK Goteborg xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.3 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.88 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 21W 12D 23L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 21W 12D 23L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.34 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 28 home games (10W 7D 11L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 9W 6D 13L from their last 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.25 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs IFK Goteborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 12D 23L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 12D 23L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.32 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.18 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 30 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
IFK Goteborg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2022, when IFK Goteborg won IFK Varnamo 1-4 IFK Goteborg.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2025: IFK Goteborg 1-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 46%, IFK Goteborg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (IFK Varnamo) and 50% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 32% of games; IFK Goteborg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 43% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 71% of IFK Goteborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IFK Goteborg 3-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.94 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.88 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.71 / defence 0.83 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 32%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, IFK Goteborg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.34 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.