IF Elfsborg 3-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 October 2023, 18:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 7W 2D 1L at Borås Arena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 1.70 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 2–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus AIK Stockholm 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 54% | AIK Stockholm 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.74 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.128 / defence 0.935 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.879 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.209. Data: 56 IF Elfsborg games / 56 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 22%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | AIK Stockholm 4.55. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 40% | AIK Stockholm 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.74 / AIK Stockholm 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.128 / def 0.935 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.879 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.99
AIK Stockholm xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 55% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
Record (4 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.13x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.23
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.73
0.99
AIK Stockholm xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
26.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.99 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 31W 13D 12L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 22W 15D 19L from 56 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AIK Stockholm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.07 PPG from 28 outings (17W 7D 4L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 9W 6D 13L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 31W 13D 12L in their last 56 games (1.89 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.07 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.18 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, AIK Stockholm 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IF Elfsborg) and 54% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IF Elfsborg's games and 61% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 54% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat AIK Stockholm 3-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.74 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.99 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 22%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 54%, AIK Stockholm 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.