IF Elfsborg 0-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 12 as IF Elfsborg welcome Hammarby FF to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of IF Elfsborg's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 3 for Hammarby FF and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus Hammarby FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 62% | Hammarby FF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.72 xG and Hammarby FF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.696 / defence 0.962 | Hammarby FF attack 1.035 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.313. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.696 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 IF Elfsborg games / 42 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 47% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 29%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Hammarby FF 3.45. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hammarby FF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: IF Elfsborg 60% | Hammarby FF 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 47% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.72 / Hammarby FF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.696 / def 0.962 | Hammarby FF attack 1.035 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Hammarby FF xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 May 2025 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 47% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (7 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.70x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.23
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.03
1.31
Hammarby FF xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
19.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.31 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 10D 17L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.63 PPG from 60 outings (27W 17D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.82 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 19W 6D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.10 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, Hammarby FF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IF Elfsborg) and 43% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 30% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 43% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.72 xG and Hammarby FF 1.31 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.70 / defence 0.96 against Hammarby FF attack 1.03 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 47% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 29%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.