Hammarby FF 1-2 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Gais at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hammarby FF — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 8W 1D 1L at 3Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gais have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 2.10 (Gais). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 1 for Gais and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Gais winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Gais in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 39% versus Gais 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 51% | Gais 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.36 xG and Gais 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.151 / defence 0.768 | Gais attack 1.170 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.340. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Hammarby FF games / 49 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 40% | Draw 27% | Gais 33%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Gais 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 40% | Gais 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 40% | Draw 27% | Gais 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Hammarby FF 1.36 / Gais 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.151 / def 0.768 | Gais attack 1.170 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Gais xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Gais kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Gais kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Hammarby FF 1 - 2 Gais.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Gais part of?
Hammarby FF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 40% chance of winning, Gais a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hammarby FF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 2 | Gais 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Gais in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Gais (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.15x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.68
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.56
1.20
Gais xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.20 for Gais, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 29W 9D 11L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais's form line: 22W 14D 13L from 49 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.96 PPG, Gais on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.24 PPG from 25 outings (17W 5D 3L).
On the road, Gais have gone 9W 7D 9L from 25 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.33 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Gais in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 29W 9D 11L in their last 49 games (1.96 PPG), while Gais have gone 22W 14D 13L in their last 49 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Gais away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.24 PPG; Gais away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Gais in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Gais?
From 6 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 1, Gais have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 44%, Gais 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hammarby FF) and 48% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Gais in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 52% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 48% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Gais tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gais in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Hammarby FF 1-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.36 xG and Gais 1.20 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Gais attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 40% | Draw 27% | Gais 33%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 51%, Gais 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Gais's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.96 PPG, Gais 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.