Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Djurgardens IF welcome Malmo FF to Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 5). Kick-off is Thursday 25 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Malmo FF have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Malmo FF have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Malmo FF's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Djurgardens IF's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Djurgardens IF hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Malmo FF and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Djurgardens IF 0–0 Malmo FF — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Djurgardens IF an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Malmo FF trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus Malmo FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.41 xG and Malmo FF 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.259 / defence 1.044 | Malmo FF attack 1.583 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.283. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack rating of 1.259 — their 1.41 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Malmo FF have an above-average attack rating of 1.583, which lifts their away xG to 2.12. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 34 games and Malmo FF's last 34.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 25% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 54%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 3.94 | Draw 4.79 | Malmo FF 1.86. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.41 / 2.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Malmo FF are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Djurgardens IF's last 10 home games and Malmo FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 40% (last 10 home games) | Malmo FF 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 5 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 25 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 25% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.41 / Malmo FF 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.259 / def 1.044 | Malmo FF attack 1.583 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Malmo FF xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 25% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 54% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.26x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 34 games and Malmo FF's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
25%
3.94
21%
4.79
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.53
2.12
Malmo FF xG
3.94
25%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
12%
8.33
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
3%
32.84
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 2.12 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 32W 11D 17L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.83 PPG from 60 outings (33W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.78 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 21W 3D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.77 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs Malmo FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.20 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won Djurgardens IF 4-0 Malmo FF.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 5, Malmo FF have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Malmo FF 0-3 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 40%, Malmo FF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Djurgardens IF) and 53% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Malmo FF in 33%; Malmo FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 47% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 53% of Malmo FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 70% of Malmo FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Djurgardens IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Djurgardens IF 0-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.41 xG and Malmo FF 2.12 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Malmo FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.26 / defence 1.04 against Malmo FF attack 1.58 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 25% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 54%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.78 PPG, Malmo FF 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.