Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 50%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Hitachi Energy Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 April 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK at Hitachi Energy Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Vasteras SK FK are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjallby AIF trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 67% versus Mjallby AIF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 60% | Mjallby AIF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 0.69 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.578 / defence 1.089 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.895 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.283. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.578 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Vasteras SK FK games / 34 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 50%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Mjallby AIF 2.00. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Mjallby AIF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Vasteras SK FK 0.69 / Mjallby AIF 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.578 / def 1.089 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.895 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Mjallby AIF xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 21% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
21%
4.84
30%
3.37
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
1.94
1.25
Mjallby AIF xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 17.9 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.25 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 10W 10D 10L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 13L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.33 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 6W 6D 3L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 8W 2D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.07 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.60 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF?
From 3 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-0 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 73%, Mjallby AIF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Vasteras SK FK) and 33% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 40%; Mjallby AIF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 0.69 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.25 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.58 / defence 1.09 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 50%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 60%, Mjallby AIF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.33 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.