Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 5 as Djurgardens IF welcome Malmo FF to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 25 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Malmo FF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Malmo FF's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Djurgardens IF's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Djurgardens IF: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Malmo FF, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Djurgardens IF a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Malmo FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus Malmo FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.41 xG and Malmo FF 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.259 / defence 1.044 | Malmo FF attack 1.583 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.283. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.583 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Djurgardens IF games / 34 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 25% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 54%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 4.00 | Draw 4.76 | Malmo FF 1.85. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Djurgardens IF dominate the H2H record, yet Malmo FF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 40% | Malmo FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 25% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.41 / Malmo FF 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.259 / def 1.044 | Malmo FF attack 1.583 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Malmo FF xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 25% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 54% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
Record (5 meetings): Djurgardens IF 3W | Draws 2 | Malmo FF 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.26x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
25%
3.94
21%
4.79
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.53
2.12
Malmo FF xG
3.94
25%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
12%
8.33
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
3%
32.84
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 2.12 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 32W 11D 17L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.83 PPG from 60 outings (33W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.78 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 21W 3D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (14W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.77 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.20 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, Malmo FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 40%, Malmo FF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Djurgardens IF) and 53% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Malmo FF in 33%; Malmo FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 47% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 53% of Malmo FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Djurgardens IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Djurgardens IF 0-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.41 xG and Malmo FF 2.12 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Malmo FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.26 / defence 1.04 against Malmo FF attack 1.58 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 25% | Draw 21% | Malmo FF 54%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.78 PPG, Malmo FF 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.