BK Hacken 4-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 67% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm meet at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 June 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
BK Hacken have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BK Hacken at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — BK Hacken are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AIK Stockholm (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for BK Hacken, 1.70 for AIK Stockholm — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, BK Hacken have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with AIK Stockholm managing 0 and 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended BK Hacken 2–0 AIK Stockholm — a BK Hacken win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both BK Hacken and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 73% and AIK Stockholm 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 68% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.69 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.155 / defence 1.070 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.893 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.375. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 1.411 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing BK Hacken's projected output up. Data: built from BK Hacken's last 42 games and AIK Stockholm's last 41.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 67% | Draw 17% | AIK Stockholm 17%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.50 | Draw 5.97 | AIK Stockholm 6.03. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (67%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.69 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 67% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (BK Hacken 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BK Hacken's last 10 home games and AIK Stockholm's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BK Hacken 70% (last 10 home games) | AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 12 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 June 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 67% | Draw 17% | AIK Stockholm 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG BK Hacken 2.69 / AIK Stockholm 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.155 / def 1.070 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.893 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.31
AIK Stockholm xG
68%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm FAQs
What time does BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm?
BK Hacken 4 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm part of?
BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 12) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 67% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
BK Hacken's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.69. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.89x) against BK Hacken's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from BK Hacken's last 42 games and AIK Stockholm's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
67%
1.50
17%
5.97
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
4.01
1.31
AIK Stockholm xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.97
17%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
7%
14.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
1%
89.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.31 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BK Hacken come into this having played 60 games, going 36W 13D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (23W 17D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
BK Hacken's home form reads 23W 4D 3L across their last 30 home games, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BK Hacken are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
BK Hacken (Home) vs AIK Stockholm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BK Hacken
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm Form FAQs
What form are BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 games (2.02 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or AIK Stockholm away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.43 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.13 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won BK Hacken 4-1 AIK Stockholm on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BK Hacken have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
3
Draws
1
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BK Hacken have won 6, AIK Stockholm have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: AIK Stockholm 3-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for BK Hacken, 60% for AIK Stockholm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for BK Hacken and 53% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BK Hacken vs AIK Stockholm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of BK Hacken's games and 60% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of BK Hacken's matches and 53% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 67% of AIK Stockholm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat AIK Stockholm 4-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.69 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.31 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.16 / defence 1.07 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.89 / defence 1.41, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 67% | Draw 17% | AIK Stockholm 17%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 68%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.90 average — above their attacking norm. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.