Vasteras SK FK 1-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BK Hacken make the trip to Hitachi Energy Arena to face Vasteras SK FK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 8 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 4W 1D 5L at Hitachi Energy Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, BK Hacken are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 36% versus BK Hacken 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 45% | BK Hacken 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.09 xG and BK Hacken 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.594 / defence 1.056 | BK Hacken attack 0.965 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.338. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Vasteras SK FK games / 43 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 43%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | BK Hacken 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BK Hacken if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 40% | BK Hacken 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.09 / BK Hacken 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.594 / def 1.056 | BK Hacken attack 0.965 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.36
BK Hacken xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 July 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 30% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 0.59x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (0.96x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 12/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
30%
3.35
27%
3.70
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.45
1.36
BK Hacken xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.36 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 8D 13L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.76 PPG from 42 outings (23W 5D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Vasteras SK FK against 1.76 for BK Hacken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.17 scored and 1.45 conceded. BK Hacken's attacking output running into Vasteras SK FK's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 67%.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 23W 5D 14L in their last 42 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or BK Hacken away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.85 PPG; BK Hacken away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won 4-0 on 28 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken?
From 3 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, BK Hacken have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 3-3 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 30%, BK Hacken 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Vasteras SK FK) and 65% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 40% of games; BK Hacken in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 50% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 65% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Vasteras SK FK 1-2 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.09 xG and BK Hacken 1.36 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.59 / defence 1.06 against BK Hacken attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 30% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 43%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 45%, BK Hacken 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.69 PPG, BK Hacken 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.