Villarreal 0-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cadiz travel to Estadio de la Cerámica to take on Villarreal in La Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Villarreal have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Villarreal's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cadiz — last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cadiz's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Villarreal are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Villarreal have won 1, Cadiz 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Villarreal 1–3 Cadiz — a Cadiz win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 62% versus Cadiz 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 58% | Cadiz 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.71 xG and Cadiz 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.143 / defence 1.355 | Cadiz attack 0.690 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.159. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Villarreal's defence rating of 1.355 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cadiz's projected output up. Data: built from Villarreal's last 60 games and Cadiz's last 60.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 51% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 22%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.97 | Draw 3.72 | Cadiz 4.44. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Cadiz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Villarreal 90% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 51% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Villarreal 1.71 / Cadiz 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.143 / def 1.355 | Cadiz attack 0.690 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Cadiz xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Villarreal vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Villarreal vs Cadiz kick off?
Villarreal vs Cadiz kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Villarreal 0 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Villarreal vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Cadiz part of?
Villarreal vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 51% chance of winning, Cadiz a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Villarreal and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Villarreal vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.14x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Villarreal's last 60 games and Cadiz's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.72
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.80
1.08
Cadiz xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
4%
24.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Villarreal vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.08 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal's recent record stands at 25W 12D 23L from 60 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 12W 22D 26L across 60 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 15W 5D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 3W 10D 17L across their last 30 away games, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.75 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
Villarreal (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Villarreal
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Villarreal vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Villarreal and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 25W 12D 23L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 22D 26L in their last 60 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Cadiz away?
Villarreal's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.67 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Villarreal vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Cadiz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Villarreal have won 1, Cadiz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 February 2024: Villarreal 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 70%, Cadiz 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Villarreal) and 23% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Villarreal vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Villarreal and Cadiz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Villarreal's games and 40% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Villarreal and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Villarreal's recent games and 23% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Villarreal's recent matches and 57% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Villarreal's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal and Cadiz finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.71 xG and Cadiz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Villarreal fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Cadiz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.14 / defence 1.35 against Cadiz attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 51% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 22%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 58%, Cadiz 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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