Valladolid 1-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Las Palmas make the trip to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to face Valladolid in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Valladolid (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valladolid have posted 2W 2D 6L at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Las Palmas have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Valladolid against 0.80 for Las Palmas. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valladolid lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Las Palmas winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Valladolid — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 44% versus Las Palmas 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 64% | Las Palmas 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.01 xG and Las Palmas 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.575 / defence 1.430 | Las Palmas attack 0.984 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.153. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.575 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Las Palmas bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Valladolid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Valladolid games / 63 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 24% | Draw 25% | Las Palmas 52%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Las Palmas 1.92. Las Palmas hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 40% | Las Palmas 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 24% | Draw 25% | Las Palmas 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Valladolid 1.01 / Las Palmas 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.575 / def 1.430 | Las Palmas attack 0.984 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Las Palmas xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Las Palmas kick off?
Valladolid vs Las Palmas kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Las Palmas?
Valladolid 1 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Valladolid vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Las Palmas part of?
Valladolid vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 24% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valladolid and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Las Palmas?
Record (1 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 0 | Las Palmas 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Las Palmas in?
Valladolid (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Las Palmas (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valladolid's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.98x) against Valladolid's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
24%
4.25
25%
4.03
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.63
1.62
Las Palmas xG
4.25
24%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
5%
21.51
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.62 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Valladolid have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 4W 3D 18L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Las Palmas's form line: 6W 5D 14L from 25 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for Valladolid against 0.92 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.60 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 3W 1D 8L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valladolid are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 1.16 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Las Palmas in 72%.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 4W 3D 18L in their last 25 games (0.60 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Las Palmas away?
Valladolid's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.00 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Las Palmas?
From 2 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Las Palmas have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Valladolid 1-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Las Palmas?
Las Palmas have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 33%, Las Palmas 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Valladolid and 75% for Las Palmas. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Valladolid's recent matches and 75% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Valladolid's matches and 75% of Las Palmas's.
Do Valladolid and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valladolid and Las Palmas share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 26, as Valladolid and Las Palmas drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.01 xG and Las Palmas 1.62 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.57 / defence 1.43 against Las Palmas attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 24% | Draw 25% | Las Palmas 52%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 64%, Las Palmas 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Las Palmas's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 0.60 PPG, Las Palmas 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.