Valladolid 1-0 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valladolid at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Espanyol make the trip to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to face Valladolid in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 19 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valladolid lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Valladolid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.42 xG and Espanyol 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Espanyol attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.193. Data: 0 Valladolid games / 0 Espanyol games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valladolid 41% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 29%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Espanyol 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valladolid as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valladolid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Monday 19 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 41% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Valladolid 1.42 / Espanyol 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Espanyol attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Valladolid (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Espanyol xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Espanyol kick off?
Valladolid vs Espanyol kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 August 2024 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Valladolid 1 - 0 Espanyol.
Where is Valladolid vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Espanyol part of?
Valladolid vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 41% chance of winning, Espanyol a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valladolid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Valladolid and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Espanyol?
Record (2 meetings): Valladolid 1W | Draws 0 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Espanyol in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valladolid's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Espanyol's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.85x) against Valladolid's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valladolid Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.41
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.58
1.17
Espanyol xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.17 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Pre-Season
Espanyol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valladolid
0
Draws
2
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Espanyol?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 2, Espanyol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when Espanyol 2-1 Valladolid.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Valladolid edge out Espanyol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Espanyol 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.42 xG and Espanyol 1.17 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Espanyol landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Espanyol attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 41% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 29%, with Valladolid to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.