Valladolid 1-0 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valladolid at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valladolid face Espanyol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Espanyol make the trip to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to face Valladolid in La Liga (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Monday 19 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Valladolid, 1 for Espanyol and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended Valladolid 2–1 Espanyol — a Valladolid win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.42 xG and Espanyol 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Espanyol attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.193. Data: built from Valladolid's last 0 games and Espanyol's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valladolid 41% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 29%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.43 | Draw 3.41 | Espanyol 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valladolid as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valladolid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Valladolid 0 games, Espanyol 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, matchday 1 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Monday 19 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 41% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Valladolid 1.42 / Espanyol 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Espanyol attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Valladolid (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Espanyol xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valladolid vs Espanyol FAQs
What time does Valladolid vs Espanyol kick off?
Valladolid vs Espanyol kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 19 August 2024 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Valladolid 1 - 0 Espanyol.
Where is Valladolid vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Espanyol part of?
Valladolid vs Espanyol is a La Liga fixture (matchday 1) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 41% chance of winning, Espanyol a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valladolid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Valladolid and Espanyol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valladolid vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valladolid's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Espanyol's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.85x) against Valladolid's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Valladolid's last 0 games and Espanyol's last 0, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valladolid Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.41
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.58
1.17
Espanyol xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valladolid vs Espanyol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.17 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Pre-Season
Espanyol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Valladolid (Home) vs Espanyol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valladolid
Pre-Season
Espanyol
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Valladolid and Espanyol, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valladolid
0
Draws
2
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Valladolid vs Espanyol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Espanyol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Valladolid have won 2, Espanyol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Espanyol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2025: Espanyol 2-1 Valladolid.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Valladolid edge out Espanyol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Espanyol 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.42 xG and Espanyol 1.17 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Espanyol landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Espanyol attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 41% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 29%, with Valladolid to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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