Real Betis 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Betis (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Betis face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Betis and Osasuna meet at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Real Betis (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Real Betis's home record at Estadio Benito Villamarín: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Benito Villamarín this season.
Osasuna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Real Betis. A 1.30 PPG lead over Osasuna (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Real Betis have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 7 meetings, with Osasuna managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Real Betis winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Real Betis and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Real Betis — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Osasuna — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 62% versus Osasuna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 47% | Osasuna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.93 xG and Osasuna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.242 / defence 1.007 | Osasuna attack 0.879 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.190. Data: 72 Real Betis games / 72 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 58% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 20%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Osasuna 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Real Betis (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 80% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 58% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Real Betis 1.93 / Osasuna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.242 / def 1.007 | Osasuna attack 0.879 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Osasuna xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Betis vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Real Betis 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Real Betis vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Osasuna part of?
Real Betis vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 58% chance of winning, Osasuna a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Real Betis and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Record (7 meetings): Real Betis 6W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in?
Real Betis (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (1.24) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.88x) against Real Betis's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.55
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.98
1.05
Osasuna xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
33.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.05 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Betis come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 24D 18L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.24 PPG from 72 outings (22W 23D 27L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Real Betis against 1.24 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Real Betis's home form reads 18W 12D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.00 points per game from 36 outings (8W 12D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Betis are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.21 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 30W 24D 18L in their last 72 games (1.58 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 22W 23D 27L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Osasuna away?
Real Betis's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.83 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won 4-1 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Betis have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Real Betis
2
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 7, Osasuna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 64%, Osasuna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Real Betis) and 47% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Real Betis's games and 53% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Betis vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Real Betis's recent games and 47% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Betis and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 35, as Real Betis and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.93 xG and Osasuna 1.05 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Real Betis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.24 / defence 1.01 against Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 58% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 20%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 47%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.58 PPG, Osasuna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.