Osasuna 2-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Girona make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Girona (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Girona away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Osasuna, 3 for Girona and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2024, ended 0–4 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Girona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Girona 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.81 xG and Girona 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.146 / defence 1.163 | Girona attack 0.817 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.247. Girona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Osasuna games / 68 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 52% | Draw 23% | Girona 25%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Girona 4.00. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 90% | Girona 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 52% | Draw 23% | Girona 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Osasuna 1.81 / Girona 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.146 / def 1.163 | Girona attack 0.817 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Girona xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Girona kick off?
Osasuna vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Girona.
Where is Osasuna vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Girona part of?
Osasuna vs Girona is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 52% chance of winning, Girona a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osasuna and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Girona?
Record (5 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 1 | Girona 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Girona in?
Osasuna (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Girona (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.82x) against Osasuna's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.34
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Osasuna xG
Total xG
3.00
1.18
Girona xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
4%
24.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.18 for Girona, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 23D 26L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 34W 13D 21L from 68 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.38 PPG from 34 outings (12W 11D 11L).
On the road, Girona have gone 13W 8D 13L from 34 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.79 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Girona in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 23D 26L in their last 68 games (1.18 PPG), while Girona have gone 34W 13D 21L in their last 68 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Girona away?
Osasuna's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.38 PPG; Girona away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won 4-0 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Osasuna 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 62%, Girona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Osasuna) and 50% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Osasuna's games and 56% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Osasuna's recent games and 50% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Girona tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Girona in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Girona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Girona 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.81 xG and Girona 1.18 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.15 / defence 1.16 against Girona attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 52% | Draw 23% | Girona 25%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Girona 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.