Osasuna 1-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Almeria meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Almeria (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Almeria's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Osasuna's 0.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Almeria's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Osasuna edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Osasuna 3–1 Almeria — a Osasuna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Almeria — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 46% versus Almeria 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 39% | Almeria 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.78 xG and Almeria 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.887 / defence 1.029 | Almeria attack 0.973 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.119. Almeria's defence rating of 1.424 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Osasuna's last 56 games and Almeria's last 56.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 27% | Almeria 22%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.96 | Draw 3.68 | Almeria 4.56. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 50% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Thursday 4 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 27% | Almeria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Osasuna 1.78 / Almeria 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.887 / def 1.029 | Almeria attack 0.973 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Almeria xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Almeria FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Almeria kick off?
Osasuna vs Almeria kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Thursday 4 January 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Almeria?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Osasuna vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Almeria part of?
Osasuna vs Almeria is a La Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 51% chance of winning, Almeria a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osasuna and Almeria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.97x) against Osasuna's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 56 games and Almeria's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.68
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.12
Almeria xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
4%
27.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Almeria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.12 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 20W 12D 24L from 56 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Almeria, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 32L across 56 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 13W 4D 11L from their last 28 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almeria's away record stands at 1W 6D 21L across their last 28 away games, a 0.32 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.21 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 68%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Almeria
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Almeria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Almeria Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Almeria in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 13D 32L in their last 56 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Almeria away?
Osasuna's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.54 PPG; Almeria away: 0.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osasuna have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osasuna won Almeria 0-3 Osasuna on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Osasuna
0
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Almeria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Almeria?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 4, Almeria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Almeria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Almeria 0-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Almeria?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 43%, Almeria 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Osasuna) and 68% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 32% of games; Almeria in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Almeria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Almeria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Osasuna's games and 71% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Osasuna and Almeria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Osasuna's recent games and 68% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Almeria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Osasuna's recent matches and 75% of Almeria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Almeria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Almeria 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.78 xG and Almeria 1.12 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almeria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Almeria attack 0.97 / defence 1.42, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 51% | Draw 27% | Almeria 22%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Almeria 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Almeria's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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