Leganes 3-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leganes at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leganes vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 38 as Leganes welcome Valladolid to Estadio Municipal de Butarque. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Leganes — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leganes at Estadio Municipal de Butarque this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 10L across 10 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Leganes have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Leganes register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Valladolid in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Leganes, 0 for Valladolid and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Leganes in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 46% versus Valladolid 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 40% | Valladolid 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 2.30 xG and Valladolid 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.918 / defence 1.227 | Valladolid attack 0.858 / defence 1.828. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.177. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.828 — this is suppressing Leganes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Leganes games / 37 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 61% | Draw 19% | Valladolid 20%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Valladolid 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Leganes (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leganes at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leganes 60% | Valladolid 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 61% | Draw 19% | Valladolid 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Leganes 2.30 / Valladolid 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.918 / def 1.227 | Valladolid attack 0.858 / def 1.828 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Leganes (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Valladolid xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Valladolid kick off?
Leganes vs Valladolid kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Valladolid?
Leganes 3 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Leganes vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Valladolid part of?
Leganes vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 61% chance of winning, Valladolid a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Leganes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Leganes and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Valladolid?
Record (1 meetings): Leganes 0W | Draws 1 | Valladolid 0W.
What form are Leganes and Valladolid in?
Leganes (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Valladolid (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leganes's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Leganes's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leganes Win
61%
1.63
19%
5.18
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Leganes xG
Total xG
3.54
1.24
Valladolid xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
10%
9.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
2%
51.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Leganes and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Leganes and 1.24 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Leganes have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 8W 13D 16L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Valladolid's form line: 4W 4D 29L from 37 games, 0.43 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Leganes are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Venue Form
On home soil, Leganes have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
On the road, Valladolid have gone 1W 0D 17L from 18 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leganes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leganes are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.70 scored and 2.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Current Season
Valladolid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 4W 4D 29L in their last 37 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Valladolid away?
Leganes's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.22 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Leganes
1
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Valladolid?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 1, Valladolid have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Leganes 3-0 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Leganes and Valladolid?
Leganes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leganes see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leganes 39%, Valladolid 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Leganes and 83% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leganes have failed to score in 39% of games; Valladolid in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Leganes's recent matches and 67% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Leganes's matches and 83% of Valladolid's.
Do Leganes and Valladolid tend to score early?
Leganes have had a goal before half-time in 39% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leganes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leganes beat Valladolid 3-0 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 2.30 xG and Valladolid 1.24 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valladolid landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against Valladolid attack 0.86 / defence 1.83, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 61% | Draw 19% | Valladolid 20%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 40%, Valladolid 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Valladolid's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Leganes arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.