Las Palmas 1-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Villarreal travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Las Palmas have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas at Estadio de Gran Canaria this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Villarreal — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Las Palmas 1.40 PPG, Villarreal 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Las Palmas have won 2, Villarreal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Las Palmas 52% and Villarreal 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 40% | Villarreal 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.28 xG and Villarreal 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.878 / defence 1.149 | Villarreal attack 1.197 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.121. Data: 60 Las Palmas games / 60 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 32% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 43%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Villarreal 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 70% | Villarreal 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 32% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Las Palmas 1.28 / Villarreal 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.878 / def 1.149 | Villarreal attack 1.197 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Villarreal xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Villarreal kick off?
Las Palmas vs Villarreal kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Las Palmas 1 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Las Palmas vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Villarreal part of?
Las Palmas vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 32% chance of winning, Villarreal a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Las Palmas and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Villarreal?
Record (3 meetings): Las Palmas 2W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Villarreal in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Villarreal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.88x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
32%
3.17
25%
4.01
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.82
1.54
Villarreal xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.54 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 16W 15D 29L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 24W 18D 18L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Las Palmas.
Venue Form
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 12W 9D 9L from 30 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Las Palmas are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.82 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 78%.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 16W 15D 29L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 24W 18D 18L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.23 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jan 2024, when Las Palmas won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Las Palmas's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Las Palmas
0
Draws
2
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Villarreal?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 2, Villarreal have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Las Palmas 1-2 Villarreal.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Las Palmas at 57%, Villarreal at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Las Palmas) and 57% (Villarreal).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Las Palmas's games and 77% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Las Palmas's recent games and 57% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Villarreal tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Las Palmas 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Las Palmas 1-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.28 xG and Villarreal 1.54 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Villarreal attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 32% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 43%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 40%, Villarreal 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.