Alaves 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Mallorca (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alaves face Mallorca.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Alaves and Mallorca meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.

Form

Alaves (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mendizorroza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.

Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mallorca away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Mallorca arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Alaves, 2 for Mallorca and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 41% versus Mallorca 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 37% | Mallorca 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.17 xG and Mallorca 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.890 / defence 1.101 | Mallorca attack 1.015 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.083. Data: 49 Alaves games / 49 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 33% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 35%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Mallorca 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 30% | Mallorca 70%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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