Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2021 at 06:40 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.54 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.246 / defence 0.900 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.098 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.155. Pohang Steelers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 16 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 26%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Pohang Steelers 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 06:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.54 / Pohang Steelers 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.246 / def 0.900 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.098 / def 1.281 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Pohang Steelers xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 06:40 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 44% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.25x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.28
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.14
Pohang Steelers xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.14 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Pohang Steelers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.54 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.90 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.10 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 26%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.