Ulsan Hyundai FC 5-4 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.10 (Pohang Steelers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Pohang Steelers and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with Pohang Steelers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Pohang Steelers 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% | Pohang Steelers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.049 / defence 0.840 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.263 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.135. Pohang Steelers have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 61 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 28%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Pohang Steelers 3.57. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Pohang Steelers 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 / Pohang Steelers 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.049 / def 0.840 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.263 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Pohang Steelers xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 5 - 4 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 47% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Record (3 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 0 | Pohang Steelers 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.07
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.21
Pohang Steelers xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
6%
17.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.21 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 37W 13D 16L from 66 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 28W 24D 14L across 66 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.88 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 22W 7D 4L from 33 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 11W 13D 9L across 33 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers in 64%.
Last 66 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 37W 13D 16L in their last 66 games (1.88 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 28W 24D 14L in their last 66 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%, Pohang Steelers 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 48% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 67% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 48% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Pohang Steelers 5-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 5-4 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.21 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pohang Steelers outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.26 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 28%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%, Pohang Steelers 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.88 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.