Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 9 August 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Jeju United FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jeju United FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ulsan Hyundai FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% versus Jeju United FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Jeju United FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.65 xG and Jeju United FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.107 / defence 1.142 | Jeju United FC attack 0.899 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.309. Data: 57 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 57 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 24% | Jeju United FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Jeju United FC 3.23. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Ulsan Hyundai FC dominate the H2H record, yet Jeju United FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeju United FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Jeju United FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 24% | Jeju United FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.65 / Jeju United FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.107 / def 1.142 | Jeju United FC attack 0.899 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jeju United FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 45% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (5 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.11x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.90x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
45%
2.25
24%
4.12
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.99
1.34
Jeju United FC xG
2.25
45%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.34 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 62 games, going 29W 16D 17L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.26 PPG from 62 outings (23W 9D 30L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.26 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 18W 6D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (6W 7D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jeju United FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 29W 16D 17L in their last 62 games (1.66 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 23W 9D 30L in their last 62 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.94 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 7, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 48% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 48% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.65 xG and Jeju United FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against Jeju United FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 24% | Jeju United FC 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 45%, Jeju United FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.66 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.