Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.60 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 3 for Gangwon FC and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Gangwon FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Gangwon FC 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG and Gangwon FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.235 / defence 1.182 | Gangwon FC attack 0.861 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.307. Data: 55 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 54 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 28% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Gangwon FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gangwon FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Gangwon FC 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 28% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 / Gangwon FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.235 / def 1.182 | Gangwon FC attack 0.861 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Gangwon FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 3 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 28% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (9 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 2 | Gangwon FC 3W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.24x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
28%
3.52
34%
2.97
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.33
Gangwon FC xG
3.52
28%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.33 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 15D 22L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.42 PPG from 59 outings (21W 21D 17L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.37 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.41 points per game from 29 outings (11W 8D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.05 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Gangwon FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 22W 15D 22L in their last 59 games (1.37 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 21W 21D 17L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Gangwon FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 34% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 41%; Gangwon FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 38% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 34% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG and Gangwon FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.18 against Gangwon FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 28% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 38%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%, Gangwon FC 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.37 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.