Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees FC Seoul travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 April 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.37 xG and FC Seoul 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.352 / defence 0.967 | FC Seoul attack 0.772 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 0.925 / away 1.053. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 7 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 19%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | FC Seoul 5.26. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.37 / FC Seoul 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.352 / def 0.967 | FC Seoul attack 0.772 / def 1.092 | league avg home 0.925 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
FC Seoul xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 7 April 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 48% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.35) and FC Seoul's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
48%
2.07
32%
3.08
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.79
FC Seoul xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.79 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out FC Seoul 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Seoul 3-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.37 xG and FC Seoul 0.79 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.97 against FC Seoul attack 0.77 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 19%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.