Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ulsan Hyundai FC take on FC Seoul.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees FC Seoul travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 April 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Seoul — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 PPG, FC Seoul 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, FC Seoul 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with FC Seoul winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus FC Seoul 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | FC Seoul 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG and FC Seoul 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.050 / defence 0.906 | FC Seoul attack 1.138 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.041. Data: 39 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 39 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 37% | FC Seoul 30%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | FC Seoul 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | FC Seoul 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Apr 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 37% | FC Seoul 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 / FC Seoul 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.050 / def 0.906 | FC Seoul attack 1.138 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC Seoul xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 4 FC Seoul.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
Record (8 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 4 | FC Seoul 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.05) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
37%
2.74
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.07
FC Seoul xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.07 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 20D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.41 PPG from 76 outings (28W 23D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 21W 8D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.32 points per game from 38 outings (12W 14D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.38 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 28W 23D 25L in their last 76 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, FC Seoul 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 40% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC Seoul in 37%; FC Seoul in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 53% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 40% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Seoul run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG and FC Seoul 1.07 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Seoul outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against FC Seoul attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 37% | FC Seoul 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, FC Seoul 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, FC Seoul 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.