Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees FC Seoul travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 June 2024, 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FC Seoul — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 PPG, FC Seoul 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 1, FC Seoul 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus FC Seoul 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | FC Seoul 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.84 xG and FC Seoul 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.453 / defence 0.885 | FC Seoul attack 1.021 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.148. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 49 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 21%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | FC Seoul 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | FC Seoul 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.84 / FC Seoul 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.453 / def 0.885 | FC Seoul attack 1.021 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Seoul xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 56% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
Record (2 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 1 | FC Seoul 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.45) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.40
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.04
FC Seoul xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
3%
29.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.04 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 45W 17D 14L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.33 PPG from 76 outings (25W 26D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 25W 8D 5L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.32 points per game from 38 outings (12W 14D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.39 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.18 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 63%, FC Seoul 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 42% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 58% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 42% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.84 xG and FC Seoul 1.04 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Seoul outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.45 / defence 0.89 against FC Seoul attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 21%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, FC Seoul 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.