Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Bucheon FC 1995 in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bucheon FC 1995's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bucheon FC 1995 are 2.00 PPG clear of Ulsan Hyundai FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W, Bucheon FC 1995 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.226 / defence 1.224 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.709 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.321. Data: 45 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 12 Bucheon FC 1995 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Bucheon FC 1995 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bucheon FC 1995 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 / Bucheon FC 1995 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.226 / def 1.224 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.709 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Record (1 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Bucheon FC 1995 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.23) and Bucheon FC 1995's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bucheon FC 1995's attack (0.71x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.18
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.15
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.15 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bucheon FC 1995's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W. It's still early in the season for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bucheon FC 1995 are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
0
Draws
0
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
From 2 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Bucheon FC 1995?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Bucheon FC 1995 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.15 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bucheon FC 1995 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.22 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 0%, Bucheon FC 1995 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.