Suwon City FC 0-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Suwon World Cup Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon City FC 1.80 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 58% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.142 / defence 1.085 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.998 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.108. Ulsan Hyundai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Suwon City FC games / 31 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 41% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 41% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Suwon City FC 1.37 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.142 / def 1.085 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.998 / def 1.251 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon City FC 0 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 41% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.78
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.20
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.20 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 12W 9D 10L from 31 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 4L across 31 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 6W 5D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.61 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 12W 9D 10L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 17W 10D 4L in their last 31 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 64%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Suwon City FC and 64% for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Suwon City FC's games and 64% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Suwon City FC's matches and 64% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ulsan Hyundai FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 0-3 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.08 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.25, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 41% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 58%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.