Suwon City FC 2-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 1W 3D 6L at Suwon Sports Complex — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon City FC 1.00 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Suwon City FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2023, ended 1–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.929 / defence 1.316 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.040 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.168. Data: 63 Suwon City FC games / 63 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.13. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Suwon City FC 1.18 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.929 / def 1.316 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.040 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 28% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (1 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.93x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
28%
3.54
25%
4.04
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.60
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.60 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 21W 14D 33L from 68 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 41W 15D 12L across 68 games — 2.03 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 13W 7D 14L from 34 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 19W 8D 7L across 34 trips, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60%.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 21W 14D 33L in their last 68 games (1.13 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 41W 15D 12L in their last 68 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 68%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Suwon City FC) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Suwon City FC's matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Suwon City FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 2-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.60 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.32 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.