Suwon City FC 1-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Tuesday 6 September 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suwon City FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pohang Steelers (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Pohang Steelers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus Pohang Steelers 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 61% | Pohang Steelers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 2.17 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.283 / defence 1.395 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.018 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.252. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Suwon City FC games / 62 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 47% | Draw 21% | Pohang Steelers 32%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.13 | Draw 4.76 | Pohang Steelers 3.12. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.95 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Pohang Steelers 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 47% | Draw 21% | Pohang Steelers 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Suwon City FC 2.17 / Pohang Steelers 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.283 / def 1.395 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.018 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Pohang Steelers xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Suwon City FC 1 - 0 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 47% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 32% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.28) and Pohang Steelers's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (1.02x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
47%
2.11
21%
4.88
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.95
1.78
Pohang Steelers xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.79
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
4%
27.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.78 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon City FC come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 16D 27L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Pohang Steelers sit at 1.40 PPG from 67 outings (25W 19D 23L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.40 for Pohang Steelers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Suwon City FC's home form reads 15W 5D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Pohang Steelers have taken 1.31 points per game from 32 outings (11W 9D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.24 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 24W 16D 27L in their last 67 games (1.31 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 25W 19D 23L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 22 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 1-5 on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
4
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Pohang Steelers have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2025, when Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 72%, Pohang Steelers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Suwon City FC) and 41% (Pohang Steelers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Suwon City FC's games and 50% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Suwon City FC's matches and 41% of Pohang Steelers's.
Do Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out Pohang Steelers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.17 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.78 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pohang Steelers landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.40 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 47% | Draw 21% | Pohang Steelers 32%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 61%, Pohang Steelers 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.31 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.