Suwon City FC 1-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Pohang Steelers (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon City FC face Pohang Steelers.

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Full Analysis

Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Suwon City FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pohang Steelers (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Pohang Steelers arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Pohang Steelers, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pohang Steelers have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 63% and Pohang Steelers 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | Pohang Steelers 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.03 xG and Pohang Steelers 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.814 / defence 1.229 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.441 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.288. Pohang Steelers have an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — the away xG of 2.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Suwon City FC games / 45 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 16% | Draw 19% | Pohang Steelers 65%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 6.25 | Draw 5.26 | Pohang Steelers 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Pohang Steelers (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 90% | Pohang Steelers 50% BTTS from recent games.

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