Suwon City FC 1-2 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 4 March 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suwon City FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pohang Steelers (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Pohang Steelers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Pohang Steelers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Pohang Steelers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.50 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.096 / defence 1.081 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.030 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.102. Data: 34 Suwon City FC games / 34 Pohang Steelers games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 43% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Pohang Steelers 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Pohang Steelers 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 43% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Suwon City FC 1.50 / Pohang Steelers 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.096 / def 1.081 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.030 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Pohang Steelers xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Suwon City FC 1 - 2 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 43% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.10) and Pohang Steelers's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (1.03x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
43%
2.30
25%
3.93
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.23
Pohang Steelers xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.23 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon City FC come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 18D 31L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Pohang Steelers sit at 1.39 PPG from 76 outings (28W 22D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.39 for Pohang Steelers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Suwon City FC's home form reads 18W 6D 14L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Pohang Steelers have taken 1.32 points per game from 38 outings (13W 11D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.22 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 22 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 1-5 on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
4
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Pohang Steelers have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2025, when Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, Pohang Steelers 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Suwon City FC) and 40% (Pohang Steelers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Suwon City FC's matches and 40% of Pohang Steelers's.
Do Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.50 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.23 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 43% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 31%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Pohang Steelers 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.