Suwon City FC 0-5 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Suwon City FC welcome Jeju United FC to Suwon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Suwon Sports Complex, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon City FC at 1.20 PPG versus Jeju United FC's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 60% and Jeju United FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Jeju United FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.24 xG and Jeju United FC 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.215 / defence 1.092 | Jeju United FC attack 1.117 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.254. Data: 45 Suwon City FC games / 45 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 30% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Jeju United FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Jeju United FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 30% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Suwon City FC 1.24 / Jeju United FC 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.215 / def 1.092 | Jeju United FC attack 1.117 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Jeju United FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Suwon City FC 0 - 5 Jeju United FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 30% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.22) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
30%
3.30
26%
3.83
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.53
Jeju United FC xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
7%
15.24
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.53 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 27W 18D 31L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 26D 24L across 76 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.30 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 18W 7D 14L from 39 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 14W 13D 12L across 39 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 26D 24L in their last 76 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 69%, Jeju United FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Suwon City FC and 54% for Jeju United FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon City FC's games and 56% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Suwon City FC's matches and 54% of Jeju United FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jeju United FC run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Suwon City FC 0-5 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.24 xG and Jeju United FC 1.53 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.53 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.09 against Jeju United FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 30% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 44%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Jeju United FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.