Suwon City FC 1-3 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Suwon City FC welcome Gwangju FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Suwon City FC) versus 1.10 (Gwangju FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Suwon City FC trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Gwangju FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 59% | Gwangju FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.35 xG and Gwangju FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.031 / defence 1.203 | Gwangju FC attack 0.720 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 1.179. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Suwon City FC games / 32 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 27% | Gwangju FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Gwangju FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 60% | Gwangju FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 27% | Gwangju FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Suwon City FC 1.35 / Gwangju FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.031 / def 1.203 | Gwangju FC attack 0.720 / def 1.382 | league avg home 0.950 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gwangju FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 3 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.03) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.65
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.37
1.02
Gwangju FC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.02 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 9D 11L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 0.94 PPG from 32 outings (8W 6D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Suwon City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Suwon City FC's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (3W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 32 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 12W 9D 11L in their last 32 games (1.41 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 8W 6D 18L in their last 32 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gwangju FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 60%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Suwon City FC) and 53% (Gwangju FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Suwon City FC's matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Suwon City FC 1-3 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.35 xG and Gwangju FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against Gwangju FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.38, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 27% | Gwangju FC 28%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 59%, Gwangju FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Suwon City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Gwangju FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.