Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 April 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.20 xG and FC Seoul 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.989 / defence 1.246 | FC Seoul attack 0.938 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 0.945. FC Seoul bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Suwon City FC games / 11 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 38% | Draw 29% | FC Seoul 33%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | FC Seoul 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 38% | Draw 29% | FC Seoul 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Suwon City FC 1.20 / FC Seoul 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.989 / def 1.246 | FC Seoul attack 0.938 / def 1.337 | league avg home 0.911 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC Seoul xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Suwon City FC 1 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 38% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (0.94x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.44
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.31
1.10
FC Seoul xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.10 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 0, FC Seoul have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Suwon City FC and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 12, as Suwon City FC and FC Seoul drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.20 xG and FC Seoul 1.10 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.25 against FC Seoul attack 0.94 / defence 1.34, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 38% | Draw 29% | FC Seoul 33%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.