Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon World Cup Stadium plays host to Suwon Bluewings versus Seongnam FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG and Seongnam FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.939 / defence 1.034 | Seongnam FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 0.817. Data: 1 Suwon Bluewings games / 1 Seongnam FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 39% | Seongnam FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.38 | Draw 2.56 | Seongnam FC 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 39% | Seongnam FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.16 / Seongnam FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.939 / def 1.034 | Seongnam FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.072 / away 0.817 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Seongnam FC xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 7 March 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 42% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 19% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.94x the league average against Seongnam FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.85x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
42%
2.36
39%
2.59
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.88
0.72
Seongnam FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.72 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since March 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Suwon Bluewings go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
1
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 5, Seongnam FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 0-2 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon Bluewings edge out Seongnam FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Seongnam FC 1-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG and Seongnam FC 0.72 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Seongnam FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 39% | Seongnam FC 19%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.