Suwon Bluewings 3-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Suwon Bluewings take on Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.90 xG and Jeju United FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.086 / defence 1.162 | Jeju United FC attack 0.813 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 0.930 / away 1.039. Data: 14 Suwon Bluewings games / 14 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Jeju United FC 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.90 / Jeju United FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.086 / def 1.162 | Jeju United FC attack 0.813 / def 0.891 | league avg home 0.930 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Jeju United FC xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Suwon Bluewings 3 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 30% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.81x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
35%
2.82
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.88
0.98
Jeju United FC xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.98 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeju United FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
7
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Jeju United FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Jeju United FC 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Jeju United FC 3-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.90 xG and Jeju United FC 0.98 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Jeju United FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.