Seongnam FC 1-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Seongnam FC welcome FC Seoul to Tancheon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 10 March 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.09 xG and FC Seoul 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.773 / defence 1.051 | FC Seoul attack 0.747 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 0.684. Seongnam FC's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Seoul bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Seongnam FC games / 2 FC Seoul games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 49% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 18%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | FC Seoul 5.56. Seongnam FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — FC Seoul's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Seongnam FC at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Mar 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 49% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 28% | xG Seongnam FC 1.09 / FC Seoul 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.773 / def 1.051 | FC Seoul attack 0.747 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.143 / away 0.684 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.54
FC Seoul xG
28%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 10 March 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Seongnam FC 1 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 49% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Seongnam FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seongnam FC and FC Seoul in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (0.77) and FC Seoul's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.9%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
49%
2.04
33%
3.04
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.63
0.54
FC Seoul xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.62
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
58%
1.71
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.4 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.54 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seongnam FC and FC Seoul runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
3
Draws
2
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and FC Seoul?
From 8 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when FC Seoul 0-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and FC Seoul?
Seongnam FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Seongnam FC edge out FC Seoul 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat FC Seoul 1-0 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.09 xG and FC Seoul 0.54 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against FC Seoul attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 49% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 18%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.