Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.943 / defence 0.967 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.172 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.123. Data: 13 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 46 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.943 / def 0.967 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.172 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 29% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.55
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.27
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.27 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.86, drawn from 13/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.