Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gimcheon Stadium plays host to Gimcheon Sangmu FC versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 05:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pohang Steelers have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.74 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.258 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 0.926 / away 1.050. Pohang Steelers have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 34 Pohang Steelers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 18% | Draw 26% | Pohang Steelers 56%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Pohang Steelers 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Pohang Steelers (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 18% | Draw 26% | Pohang Steelers 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.74 / Pohang Steelers 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.258 / def 0.935 | league avg home 0.926 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Pohang Steelers xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3 - 2 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 18% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Pohang Steelers away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (1.26x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
The sample (1/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
18%
5.48
26%
3.86
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.26
1.52
Pohang Steelers xG
5.48
18%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
4%
25.04
27%
3.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 15.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.52 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
1
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 7, Pohang Steelers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Pohang Steelers 3-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.74 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.52 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.26 / defence 0.94, drawn from 1/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 18% | Draw 26% | Pohang Steelers 56%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.