Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 54%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Daegu FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 June 2024, 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 1W 2D 7L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Daegu FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daegu FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1, Daegu FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Daegu FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Daegu FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.41 xG and Daegu FC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.981 / defence 0.826 | Daegu FC attack 0.785 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.100. Data: 19 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 52 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 5.26. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Daegu FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jun 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.41 / Daegu FC 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.981 / def 0.826 | Daegu FC attack 0.785 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Daegu FC xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 29 June 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 54% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
Record (5 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 3 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.65
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.12
0.71
Daegu FC xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.71 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 8W 14D 18L from 40 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 11L across 40 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daegu FC by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gimcheon Sangmu FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 5W 5D 10L from 20 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 6W 6D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 13W 16D 11L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Daegu FC's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 40% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 40% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.41 xG and Daegu FC 0.71 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Daegu FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 19/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 19%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Daegu FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Daegu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.