Pohang Steelers 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pohang Steelers face Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Pohang Steel Yard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 3W 2D 5L at Pohang Steel Yard — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Pohang Steelers's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ulsan Hyundai FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Pohang Steelers.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 63% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 43% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.78 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.795 / defence 0.987 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.039 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.182. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Pohang Steelers games / 38 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 23% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.17. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 23% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.78 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.795 / def 0.987 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.039 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 23% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (5 meetings): Pohang Steelers 1W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.80x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
23%
4.26
31%
3.25
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.00
1.21
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
7%
14.30
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 16.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.21 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 30W 27D 19L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.95 PPG from 76 outings (44W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 18W 13D 7L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.58 points per game from 38 outings (17W 9D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 27D 19L in their last 76 games (1.54 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.76 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 58%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Pohang Steelers) and 42% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 34%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 42% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.78 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 23% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pohang Steelers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Pohang Steelers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.