Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this season.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeonbuk Motors 2.00 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeonbuk Motors register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 52% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.09 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.979 / defence 0.975 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.061 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.251. Data: 57 Jeonbuk Motors games / 57 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Jeonbuk Motors 70% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.09 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.979 / def 0.975 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.061 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 31% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (0.98) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.45
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.39
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.29 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 62 games, going 35W 16D 11L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.02 PPG from 62 outings (36W 17D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.95 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 16W 8D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.77 points per game from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 16D 11L in their last 62 games (1.95 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 36W 17D 9L in their last 62 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.87 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 57%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.09 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.95 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.