Jeonbuk Motors 2-4 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 19 May 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.47 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.317 / defence 1.192 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.770 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 1.093. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Jeonbuk Motors games / 15 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.35. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.47 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.317 / def 1.192 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.770 / def 1.163 | league avg home 0.959 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 19 May 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 4 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 45% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.32) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.20
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.47
1.00
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
5%
18.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.00 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-4 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.47 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.32 / defence 1.19 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 23%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Ulsan Hyundai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.