Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38%, yet in-form Jeju United FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Jeju United FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 10 July 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1W 6D 3L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jeju United FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jeonbuk Motors have won 0, Jeju United FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Jeju United FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 51% versus Jeju United FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Jeju United FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.34 xG and Jeju United FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.967 / defence 1.414 | Jeju United FC attack 0.785 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.174. Data: 54 Jeonbuk Motors games / 54 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Jeju United FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeju United FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 90% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Jul 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.34 / Jeju United FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.967 / def 1.414 | Jeju United FC attack 0.785 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Jeju United FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 10 July 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
Record (2 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 0W | Draws 1 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (0.97) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.81
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.64
1.30
Jeju United FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.30 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 19W 17D 23L from 59 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 28L across 59 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 11W 10D 8L from 29 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 7W 6D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.10 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.48 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Jeju United FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 66%, Jeju United FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 38% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 52% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 38% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.34 xG and Jeju United FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.97 / defence 1.41 against Jeju United FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 36%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 42%, Jeju United FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.