Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen meet at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 3W 0D 1L across 4 K League 1 outings this term — 2.25 points per game. Last five: W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Jeonbuk Motors, 2.25 for Daejeon Citizen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jeonbuk Motors 75% and Daejeon Citizen 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jeonbuk Motors 75% | Daejeon Citizen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.97 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.978 / defence 0.857 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.170 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.181. Daejeon Citizen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Jeonbuk Motors games / 8 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 56% | Draw 22% | Daejeon Citizen 23%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Daejeon Citizen 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Daejeon Citizen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 56% | Draw 22% | Daejeon Citizen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.97 / Daejeon Citizen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.978 / def 0.857 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.170 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Daejeon Citizen xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 56% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 0.98x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.17x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 41/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.60
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
3.16
1.18
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
3%
31.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.18 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 0D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.25 PPG for Jeonbuk Motors against 2.25 for Daejeon Citizen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded. Daejeon Citizen's attacking output running into Jeonbuk Motors's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jeonbuk Motors have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Early Season
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jeonbuk Motors
5
Draws
1
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 75%, Daejeon Citizen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jeonbuk Motors and 75% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 50% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jeonbuk Motors's matches and 75% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.97 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.18 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.17 / defence 1.39, drawn from 41/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 56% | Draw 22% | Daejeon Citizen 23%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Daejeon Citizen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 75%, Daejeon Citizen 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 2.25 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 2.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.