Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 7W 2D 1L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Daegu FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Jeonbuk Motors) versus 1.40 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jeonbuk Motors have won 1, Daegu FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Daegu FC trading profile (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 49% versus Daegu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 39% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 xG and Daegu FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.997 / defence 0.915 | Daegu FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.146. Data: 64 Jeonbuk Motors games / 64 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Daegu FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 / Daegu FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.997 / def 0.915 | Daegu FC attack 0.926 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Daegu FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 3 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 42% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Record (1 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 1W | Draws 0 | Daegu FC 0W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.00x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.32
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.24
0.97
Daegu FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.97 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 34W 17D 18L from 69 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 28D 20L across 69 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.72 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 17W 11D 7L from 35 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 15D 13L across 35 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 34W 17D 18L in their last 69 games (1.72 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 21W 28D 20L in their last 69 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.77 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Daegu FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 54%, Daegu FC 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 49% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 66% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 49% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 xG and Daegu FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 39%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.72 PPG, Daegu FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.