Jeju United FC 1-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Jeju United FC take on Gwangju FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gwangju FC make the trip to Jeju World Cup Stadium to face Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.11 xG and Gwangju FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.944 / defence 0.979 | Gwangju FC attack 1.084 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 1.013. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Jeju United FC games / 5 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Gwangju FC 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Jeju United FC 1.11 / Gwangju FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.944 / def 0.979 | Gwangju FC attack 1.084 / def 1.237 | league avg home 0.948 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Gwangju FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 20 March 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 33% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.94) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (1.08x) against Jeju United FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
35%
2.83
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.18
1.07
Gwangju FC xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.07 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.11 xG and Gwangju FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Gwangju FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 35% | Gwangju FC 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.